NFL Betting Strategies

NFL Betting Strategies

Are you new to American Football? Or a seasoned pro with years of Gridiron experience? Or somewhere in between the two, with solid general knowledge but a desire to learn more about the intricacies of the game. Regardless of your current status, there are some key NFL betting strategies which will benefit anyone looking to bet on the NFL. With so many markets available across all games in a weekly schedule, it is often a tough choice to decide which bets to focus your budget on. Read on below to improve your sports betting returns over the course of a lengthy NFL season and finally start winning.

Before we delve into some useful statistics, let us first look at the NFL betting market in size and structure. Iit is impossible to have a definitive figure, but many well informed industry insiders put the total amount wagered on NFL games in the double-digit billions of dollars per season. Considering the legal ambiguity of online gaming in the states, that is a mammoth amount of money. The Superbowl, being the most watched sporting event on the planet, brings in billions of dollars on its own. The playoff games are also spectacles which bring huge TV viewership and as such plenty of punters looking to place bets. Below you will find our NFL online betting strategies which are guaranteed to improve your winning percentage and help you beat the bookies.

With such high stakes and huge amounts of money involved, it is obvious that the bookies are going to do their homework and gain a competitive edge. They will have every possible piece of information available to them and apply it to their predictive models. Unfortunately for us, the average punter will not have access to these impressive algorithms which spit out the odds. However the information that goes into the system is readily available to anyone who knows what to look for. And applying only the relevant and important parts of those statistics will lead you to a more successful betting career.

Our Top 5 NFL betting strategies for serious sports bettors

Look for the home teams. Teams win percentage increases significantly when they are playing a home game (apart from of course the Browns). In the 2017 season, the Philadelphia Eagles, who went on to win the Superbowl, had a 9-1 record at home. Look at their away game results and that record drops to a less than impressive 6-2. The same trend can be found across all the teams as they struggle to replicate home form in away game situations. The factors for this are pretty simple – no team wants to lose in front of their adoring home fans. Add that to the fact they are not required to travel to a game and should be used to the weather conditions. If you see a close moneyline or large spread option on a home team underdog then this can often be a great bet. The home team underdog will certainly be expected to give 110% right up til the final whistle and this means the chance of them at least covering the point spread is a lucrative bet.

Look at the O-Line

If you don’t know what that term means, then you are definitely still a rookie in terms of being an NFL bettor. All fantasy football team owners ensure that any players they pick are part of a team with a strong and effective o-line. The offensive line is undoubtedly the most important part of any team and pivotal to its potential success. Teams with great offensive lines are going to progress into the playoffs and have a great chance at reaching the super bowl. No matter how talented the quarterback is, if the o-line has problems then the QB is likely to spend most of the time picking himself up from the turf. In the same way, without a strong offensive line up front, there will be no room for the running back to break through into the secondary and gain some big yards. It’s not a glamour position, but if you want to see which teams are likely to be successful, then it’s a great metric to start looking at. Just ask the Dallas Cowboys team from 2016-2017 season, where a rookie quarterback + running back combined to have a great season and exceed the analysts expectations.

Know your Stats – Part 1

The best betting tips for NFL games are to know which stats matter and how to apply the relevance to your bets. There are enough NFL stats to sink a ship, it’s picking the ones that will really make a difference and give you an edge that is the trick. A favorite of this sites is mainly overlooked but is a great barometer of a teams potency with the ball. It is the total yards per attempt. This stat clearly shows you how effective a team is in offence. In a passers league it stands to reason that a team which possesses an efficient passing game is likely to perform well over the course of a season and outperform a team with a low yards per attempt score. If the understanding between a QB and his set of wide receivers is good then the offence will be rolling over opponents every week.

Go Shopping. No this isn’t a typo, we are serious. This tip isn’t even a real sports betting strategy, rather just a way to play the system. As online betting has increased, so has the number of bookies which offer football betting. They are all competing against each other for customers and that’s great news for your average punter. Plenty of the big bookmakers are so keen to sign up new customers that they offer free bets and even match deposits up to a certain amount. There is no limit to how many online betting accounts you can open, so get out there and gobble up all the bonuses you can get your hands on. Remember different bookies will offer different odds on the same game. Our odds comparison tool allows you to scour the available odds from the most popular bookies and chose the one offering the best odds. A difference of 0.5 on a points spread may be the difference between winning and losing a bet, so do not accept the first line you see, but rather do your homework. Make sure if you are picking NFL winners, that you are winning the biggest amount on offer.

Know your Stats – Part 2

We have already touched on an important stat when looking at improving NFL winning strategies above in point 3. Another useful statistic which is important to have to hand when making a bet is the number of turnovers. Quite simply, if a team is good at retaining possession of the ball during a game, they will not only create scoring opportunities for themselves, but also contain the number of opportunities for their opponents. If a team struggles with touchdowns, either through interceptions thrown by the quarterback or fumbles by the receivers and running backs, then that team will give up scoring opportunities. With some games being decided by a field goal or less the margins of error are so thin that retaining the ball is of paramount importance.

Our Favourite NFL Betting Sites

OperatorBonusRating 
50% up to $1,000 Sports Betting Join Now
50% up to $1,000 Betonline Join Now
100% up to $500 Intertops Join Now
100% up to $500 GT Bets Join Now
50% up to $250 Bovada Join Now
Terms & Conditions apply

Most common ways to bet on the NFL

Moneyline / picks

A simple bet on which team are expected to win the game in normal time. The favorite will have shorter odds, with the underdog having longer odds. Many punters look to combine a number of game picks into an accumulator or acca. An acca combines the total odds of all of the games in the selection – but is dependant on each result being correctly predicted. Commonly used to bet in other sports such as the English premier league.

Spreads

Also known as handicaps, they are a very popular way of betting on American Football games. Bookies offer a spread of points by which they expect the final outcome of the game to be. If a team such as the Pittsburgh Steelers have a spread of +10 then they bookies expect them to win big and by over 10 points. If the Steelers are playing the Cleveland Browns and they have a spread of -10 then the bookies expect them to lose by over 10 points. A bet on the Browns is successful if the Browns win OR if they lose by less than 10 points.

Totals Points

As the name suggests, this is a bet on the total number of points scored by both teams. Often referred to as over/under the bet is not in anyway reliant on the outcome of the final result, but just in the number of total points scored. A bet on this market is simply a wager on if the total points will be under or over a figure offered by the bookie. If two high flying offensive teams are playing then expect a high points number – possibly something in the region of 50. If two teams that struggle to score are playing against each other, the total number could be the low 40s or even less.

Other

There are a growing number of markets offered by bookmakers on NFL games as they look to beef up their online sports books. Many of these new bets tend to focus on individual player performance rather than the outcome of the game. Examples that you can expect to see will be total yardage for wide receivers and running backs, or total number of touchdowns by the quarterback. Punters are also now being offered odds on defensive players making a certain number of sacks, tackles or interceptions. Bookies are also throwing in special markets on a game by game basis such as time of first score, highest scoring quarter and plenty more.